Back on 25 November I linked to a fear mongering Cairns Post report suggesting a likely November or December start to the cyclone season. The story relied on the advice of Hayden Walker, a man who tries to predict weather based on sunspot activity. I expressed my skepticism, and commented that Walker’s methods seemed akin to the forecasts of psychics. I thought that the few successes would be remembered, and the more numerous failures forgotten.

We’re now half way through December, and we have not had the predicted cyclone. The Monsoon trough is still well to the north, there have been no significant low pressure systems in the Coral Sea, and none are expected to form in the near future. The first of the predictions seems destined to fail if it hasn’t already. The other predictions vary in their likelihood of being correct by chance, from the fairly good chance of three Cat 3 cyclones crossing the coast to the not so good chance of one or two Cat 5s. The predictions also have some fudge factor to increase their chances of being right.

The Cairns Post has quite a history of poor quality journalism: the Lutec free energy machine, the supposed interdimensional fossil in someone’s wall paint, claims of killer triggerfish in the Cairns Inlet, and the letters to the editor from “Billy Mango” are examples that come easily to mind. Then, of course, there’s the scantily clad young women that appear on the front page from time to time. I’m not complaining on moral grounds, just that they shouldn’t be on the front page – perhaps Page 3 as per trashy tabloid tradition or, better yet, as a full-colour centrefold.